Point of View: Bioengineering horizon scan 2020
- Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine’s College, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Ebiosec, Inc, United States
- Manchester Institute of Biotechnology, Faculty of Science and Bioengineering, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
- Gryphon Scientific, United States
- Division of Peace Studies and International Development, University of Bradford, United Kingdom
- Centre for Tropical Livestock Genetics and Health, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, United Kingdom
- Department of Philosophy, University of Massachusetts, United States
- Rogue Bioethics, United States
- Cambridge Consultants, United Kingdom
- Genetic Engineering and Society Center, North Carolina State University, United States
- University Hospital for Infectious Diseases, Croatia
- Medical School, University of Rijeka, Croatia
- Catholic University of Croatia, Croatia
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
- iGem Foundation, United States
- Rothamsted Research, United Kingdom
- John Innes Research Centre, United Kingdom
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CSIAC), Stanford University, United States
- Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, United States
- The Earlham Institute, United Kingdom
- Arkurity Ltd, United Kingdom
- Biomedical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Thailand
- Institute for Quantitative Health Sciences and Engineering, Michigan State University, United States
- Chemistry Research Laboratory, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
- Ekpa’Palek: Empowering Latin-American Young Professionals, Peru
- Department of Politics, Languages and International Studies, University of Bath, United Kingdom
- Science, Technology & Innovation Studies, School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
- SYNBIOCHEM, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
- School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, United States
- National Biosafety Authority, Zambia
- Department of Chemistry, Stanford University, United States
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Biotechnology, Qarshi University, Pakistan
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Tables
Table 1
Overview of the bioengineering horizon scan 2020.
Summary of the 20 issues identified through the scan; issues are grouped according to likely timeline for realisation.
| <5 Years | 5–10 Years | >10 Years |
|---|---|---|
| Access to biotechnology through outsourcing | Agricultural gene drives | Bio-based production of materials |
| Crops for changing climates | Neuronal probes expanding new sensory capabilities | Live plant dispensers of chemical signals |
| Function-based design in protein engineering | Distributed pharmaceutical development and manufacturing | Malicious use of advanced neurochemistry |
| Philanthropy shapes bioscience research agendas | Genetically engineered phage therapy | Enhancing carbon sequestration |
| State and international regulation of DNA database use | Human genomics converging with computing technologies | Porcine bioengineered replacement organs |
| Microbiome engineering in agriculture | The governance of cognitive enhancement | |
| Phytoremediation of contaminated soils | ||
| Production of edible vaccines in plants | ||
| The rise of personalised medicine such as cell therapies |
Table 2
Overview of the bioengineering horizon scan 2017.
Summary of the 20 issues identified in 2017; issues are grouped according to likely timeline for realisation.
| <5Years | 5–10 Years | >10 Years |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial photosynthesis and carbon capture for producing biofuels | Regenerative medicine: 3D printing body parts and tissue engineering | New makers disrupt pharmaceutical makers |
| Enhanced photosynthesis for agricultural productivity | Microbiome-based therapies | Platform technologies to address emerging disease pandemics |
| New approaches to synthetic gene drives | Producing vaccines and human therapeutics in plants | Challenges to Taxonomy-Based description and management of biological risk |
| Human genome editing | Manufacturing illegal drugs using engineered organisms | Shifting ownership models in biotechnology |
| Accelerating defense agency research in biological engineering | Reassigning codons as genetic firewalls | Securing the critical infrastructure needed to deliver the bioeconomy |
| Rise of automated tools for biological design, test and optimisation | ||
| Biology as information science: impacts on global governance | ||
| Intersection of information security and bio-automation | ||
| Effects of the Nagoya Protocol on biological engineering | ||
| Corporate espionage and biocrime |
Table 3
A comparative analysis of the groups involved with phases one and two, and phase three (the workshop).
| Characteristics | Phases one and two | Phase three (workshop) |
|---|---|---|
| Sample Size | 38 | 25 |
| Gender Balance | 21 male participants (55%) and 17 female participants (45%) | 13 females (52%) and 12 males (48%). |
| Geographical Coverage | 13 countries (UK, US, Canada, Australia, Germany, Croatia, Thailand, France, Chile, Peru, Switzerland, Malaysia, Zambia and Pakistan) | 10 countries (UK, US, Canada, Australia, Germany, Croatia, Thailand, France, Chile, Switzerland and Pakistan) |
| Disciplinary Distribution | 15 participants from humanities and social sciences (39%) and 23 from natural sciences (61%) | 9 participants from humanities and social sciences (36%) and 16 from natural sciences (64%) |
Additional files
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Supplementary file 1
Scoring of the issues in the 2017 and 2020 scans.
Raw and standardised scoring of the issues in the 2020 scan after the first and second rounds of the exercise, novelty scores of the issues in the 2020 scan, and standardised z-scores for the final 20 issues of the 2017 scan.
- https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/54489/elife-54489-supp1-v1.xlsx
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Supplementary file 2
Ranking of the 20 issues after the first and second rounds of scoring, and summary of the novelty scores.
Some of the top 20 issues had their titles changed after the workshop. In these cases, we have listed the final title in brackets next to the original title.
- https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/54489/elife-54489-supp2-v1.xlsx
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Transparent reporting form
- https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/54489/elife-54489-transrepform-v1.pdf
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Point of View: Bioengineering horizon scan 2020
eLife 9:e54489.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.54489
